Recent disruptions in the District's labor force and tax base have prompted the Office of Revenue Analysis (ORA) to analyze less-considered aspects of DC’s economic development policy,[1] such as workforce development and the tax system, and to evaluate the efficacy a
DC Keeps Revenue Forecast Unchanged as Underlying Economy Softens: DC’s June revenue estimate holds steady, as recent gains in tax collections—driven mostly by capital‑gains‑related payments and temporary boosts to high‑income withholding—do not signal sustained economic strength. Once these temporary factors are stripped away, the District’s revenue picture is far less robust. Read the full June 2026 Revenue Estimate Letter.
Revised 4/23/2026
In FY 2025, the District collected more than $2 billion in general sales and use tax revenue across eight categories, each with different tax rates (Table 1). The main sources of sales tax revenue were the General Retail, Food & Drink (Restaurant), and Hotel subcategories, which together accounted for 93 percent of the total sales tax revenue. When adjusted for inflation, this analysis shows that the city’s restaurant sector experienced a steep decline, with real activity in 2025 falling 3.6 percent compared to 2019.
New federal data provides detailed insight into changes in federal employment within the District.
DC’s new revenue forecast shows slightly stronger collections this year thanks to higher wages, strong stock‑market gains, and solid early‑year income tax payments. But these improvements aren’t enough to offset the broader economic challenges facing the city. Federal job cuts, weak real estate activity, soft tourism, and uncertainty surrounding a new federal law reversing DC’s tax changes are all weighing heavily on FY 2026 revenue.
Since the 1970s, the U.S. Census Bureau has utilized administrative tax data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to improve the precision of migration and demographic estimates.
On Jan. 7, 2026, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the state employment data for October and November 2025, which had been delayed by a federal government shutdown. The data showed that the District lost 18,400 jobs between September and October and a further 600 in November. Much of that loss was driven by federal job losses (15,300) resulting from the Deferred Resignation Program, announced earlier in 2025 as part of the federal government’s efforts to reduce the federal workforce.
Population and Demographic Changes in DC During and After the Pandemic: Part 1 – The Role of Millennials & Women
While DC has a robust and dynamic demographic mix of residents, this analysis highlights notable trends in two key components of the District of Columbia’s demographics over the last several years: millennials and women. Figure 1 shows that millennials constitute the largest generational cohort, while Figure 2 highlights a relatively high proportion of women residents.
Homeownership trends in the District of Columbia are shifting amid housing affordability challenges and demographic changes. One notable trend is that more women are becoming homeowners. Figure 1 shows that 2,315 fewer homes (a 26.8 percent decrease) were purchased in the city in 2024 compared to 2014. This decline appears to be related to decreasing housing affordability. Average mortgage rates in 2024 are more than 2.50 percentage points higher than those in 2014 and over 3.75 percentage points higher than in 2021.