The federal government has embarked on a major downsizing of the federal workforce, which has significant ramifications for the District of Columbia's (District) economy and finances. Our office’s recent revenue estimate reflects the impact of the downsizing on the District's revenue, forecasting a loss of 40,000 federal jobs and a total of 32,000 jobs in the District over the next four years. The Office of the Chief Financial Officer, Office of Revenue Analysis is tracking data that reflects the impact of these layoffs and other efforts to reduce the size of the federal government on the District’s labor market.
This post provides information on the federal employment data we are tracking and what we are watching going forward as the economic landscape changes. We discuss in detail three data sources we look to for federal layoff information: federal government worker unemployment insurance claims reported by the US Department of Labor, federal court cases with detailed layoff counts, and federal civilian unemployment insurance payout data from the US Department of Treasury. For each of these data sources, we walk you through how we used them to monitor layoffs in February.
We plan to make much of the data we discuss below available via public dashboards that we will update regularly, which you can access here for DC regional data and here for national data.
What We Know: Court Case Data vs. Federal Worker Unemployment Insurance Claims
Unemployment insurance claims are typically a good source of information on layoff counts, but claims for federal workers don’t give a complete picture of the federal government downsizing for a few reasons: there is a time lag between layoffs and when claims are filed and publicly reported, and/or probationary employees may be ineligible for unemployment insurance if they haven't worked long enough with their federal employer. To get a more accurate picture of federal government layoffs, we have turned to publicly released court case data. Below, we provide layoff data detailed in a court case filed in March and compare it to unemployment insurance claims from a similar period.
In the five week period between January 25 – February 20, national weekly unemployment insurance claims data reported that 5,040 federal civilian employees filed initial claims nationwide. Yet, based on reported layoffs, we suspect this number was higher.
In a March complaint filed in a US District Court of the District of Maryland by 19 states and the District of Columbia, 23,577 layoffs were reported between February 11 and 20 (Figure 1). Assuming the number and timing of the layoffs reported in the complaint are accurate, we can compare them to the weekly unemployment claims data. Figure 1 reports the total nationwide claims by the date outlined in the complaint.
Figure 1: Timeline and Layoffs from Multi-state Complaint
Figure 1 shows the total estimated layoffs during this period were approximately 23,577. What could account for the difference between initial claims and the layoffs estimated in the complaint? The most significant factor is time. Many states require a waiting period to receive benefits, or if you have worked a partial week, you may have waiting periods to apply. Further, in the case of the timeline in Figure 1, the layoffs occurred either on Fridays or weekends; therefore, the earliest a federal employee could apply might be the Monday after they last worked or after termination. In Figure 2 we try to reconstruct the actual layoffs from January 25 – February 20 by accounting for the earliest date a federal civilian employee could apply for UI benefits to provide an estimate of when they would be captured in the unemployment data.
Figure 2: Timeline and Layoffs from Multi-state Complaint by Earliest Application Date
From Figure 2, based on the earliest date of application, there was a potential for 15,813 federal civilian employees to file by February 22 (at the time of this analysis, the most recent date of data available). However, unemployment insurance has other eligibility rules, including the number of calendar quarters someone worked before termination. Under this circumstance, and given many of these individuals were probationary employees, the federal workers may not have qualified if they didn’t have enough working time with their employer.
For example, in DC, the eligibility criteria are as follows:
1. You made at least $1,300 in one quarter of the base period;
2. You must have wages in at least two quarters of the base period;
3. You have earned at least $1,950 in wages for the entire base period; and,
4. The total amount you earned during the base period must be at least 1.5 times the wages in your highest quarter or be within $70 of that amount.
Per DC's Unemployment Office, the base period is defined as 12 months prior to separation. Further, probationary employees may have been disqualified from UI based on several factors, as outlined in the UI Rights and Responsibilities Handbook for DC. Since many of these workers were probationary, they may lack a performance evaluation, or their termination reason by the employer may be “poor performance or conduct,” which may have delayed their claims or disqualified them in some jurisdictions under these provisions. It is important to note that each state varies depending on its qualifications and rules, and federal employees would also be subjected to these rules and restrictions when applying. This holds even though unemployment benefits are paid from a different unemployment insurance trust than non-federal employees.
Newly unemployed federal employees could also have applied late, and in this instance, the number recorded before February 22 may be undercounting the number of unemployed in the unemployment insurance data. However, using the data sources outlined in this post, we can account for at least one-third of those laid off per the court filing. Although there are some challenges in the exact size of layoffs for the unemployment insurance data, tracking the news and court filings provides insight into the direction and magnitude of change in employment.
Unemployment Insurance
As stated previously, the number of federal civilian employees who have filed for unemployment insurance benefits is known. This is reported weekly by the Employment and Training Administration in the Bureau of Labor Statistics. From these reports, the Office of Revenue Analysis tracks two programs: Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE) and Unemployment Compensation for Ex-Servicemembers (UCX). These programs are designed to make payments on unemployment claims filed by former federal civilians and ex-servicemembers from the federal government. The federal government does not pay into the state unemployment insurance trust fund; therefore, the UCFE and UCX programs would be responsible for making payments on claims. As many layoffs have been largely in the civilian federal workers sector, we have focused more on the UCFE program totals. However, we are watching UCX as the Department of Defense releases workers. Figure 3 reports the ten states with the most significant initial claims filed in the month of February for the UCFE program.
In February, DC reported that 492 UCFE initial claims had been filed as of the time of this analysis. Comparatively, the total initial claims for this program filed in 2024 for DC were only 341. The office reports and tabulates this data weekly. However, COVID taught us the value of high-frequency data, and this introduces the second piece of data we have been tracking as we work to determine the impacts associated with the current federal layoffs.
Unemployment Insurance Payments
During COVID, our office sought high-frequency data, or data reported as often as daily, to stay abreast of rapid changes in economic conditions as the pandemic progressed. We take the same approach now as we try to assess how developments in the federal workforce downsizing efforts impact the economy. One piece of data that sheds some light on the magnitude of potential impact is tracking the daily UI withdrawals from the federal government to states for UCFE and UCX claims. This data is reported daily for the prior day payments and is a great leading indicator for the size of UCFE and UCX claims we anticipate being reported in the weekly claims data. Figure 4 is a map of February’s total payments for UCFE by state, with the darker red indicating the states where the most payments were disbursed.
As reported in Figure 4, the total payments disbursed for UCFE to DC claims in February were $741,176.06. This was a 139% increase from January when total payments were $310,448.52. Figure 5 reports the top ten states by UCFE payouts in February 2025. The numbers are reported as negative in Figure 5 as they are withdrawals from the UI accounts.
Finally, we look at continued claims, as these are the individuals receiving payments to date. This gives insight into the level of continued unemployment in this sector and those who are coming off unemployment. Figure 6 is a map of the continued claims for the nation as of the end of February 2025 for UCFE.
Continuous Monitoring of Data
As changes to the federal government evolve, we continue to track layoff data. We have created two public dashboards, one tracking federal worker UI claims in DC, Maryland, and Virginia, and the other tracking federal worker UI claims and payouts across the country. We aim to keep these dashboards updated as new data is released.
About this Data
The data reported here are captured by UI offices nationwide and reported to the Department of Employment and Training in the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The UI claims and continued claims data are reported each week, with more detailed reports for monthly and quarterly provided.
Payment data in this report is tracked via the U.S. Treasury and reported by UI offices across the country as well. The total payments made by states for federal claims are done as an agreement of management. Whereby federal employees file for UI in the state of their last duty station, and this state agrees to manage the claim that the federal government will make payment upon approval.
Each state varies with eligibility and number of weeks a claimant may receive UI.