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December tax revenue estimate for DC comes in unchanged from September estimate

Monday, January 1, 2024 - 9:45pm

Our office recently released the latest quarterly revenue estimate for the District of Columbia Budget and Financial Plan for the fiscal years 2023 to 2027. The revenue estimate for the fiscal years 2024 to 2027 is unchanged from September 2023. However, the revenue estimate for the fiscal year 2023 has been revised upwards by $82.9 million due to one-time payments and year-end accounting adjustments. Although the District's economic outlook remains stable and recent population growth is consistent with the previous revenue estimate, there are potential risks that could affect the District's economic and fiscal outlook. These risks include a potential federal government shutdown, WMATA's budget shortfall, high interest rates, geopolitical risks such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and Monumental Sports' announcement of potentially moving the home arena of the Washington Capitals and Washington Wizards.

Table titled 'December 2023 Revenue Estimate Compared to Previous Estimate' showing DC Local Source General Fund Revenue Estimates in millions of dollars for FY 2022 through FY 2027. The September 2023 estimate is compared to the December 2023 revision. FY 2023 was revised upward by $82.9M to $9,973.7M. The December 2023 estimate projects $9,909.7M for FY 2024 (a decline of -0.6% year-over-year), rising to $10,190.0M in FY 2025 (+2.8%), $10,393.4M in FY 2026 (+2.0%), and $10,667.3M in FY 2027 (+2.6%).

Read more about our revenue estimate and economic outlook