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September tax revenue estimate for DC comes in higher than February estimate

Our office recently released its quarterly revenue estimate for the FY 2023 – FY 2027 District of Columbia Budget and Financial Plan. We revised our FY 2023 local source revenue estimate upward by $178.8 million based on year-to-date collections data that show higher than expected sales and corporate income tax revenue. Stronger than expected interest earnings from investible reserves also comprise part of the FY 2023 upward revision.

D.C. lost at least 17,000 more people during the pandemic than in the prior year, according to USPS data on net moves. At least 9,000 of the loss appears to be permanent.

When the pandemic restrictions were put in place last Spring, there was plenty of anecdotal evidence that people were leaving D.C. as white-collar workers became remote, others were laid off, and schools shut down. Data from the United States Postal Service (USPS), which records changes of address, provides a clue as to how many people left D.C. and where they went.

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